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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.