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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."